Fig. 4

Trends in fertility rates from the calibrated fitted model correspond closely to those estimated from India’s National Family Health Survey. Cumulative fertility rates in India among urban women in (a) 1993, (b) 1999, and (c) 2006, and for rural women in (d) 1993, (e) 1999, and (f) 2006 showing model fits red with 95 % confidence intervals, and data as blue dots. Disaggregated data and model fits by age, birth cohort, urban/rural residence, and educational attainment are provided in Additional file 1: SI Figure AF2. Fertility data were fitted using the Gompertz-Pasupuleti model (Equation 1 in the main text)