Fig. 4

Simulated mortality based on pneumonia mortality in China. Cause-specific mortality predicted from simulated data, where the true age and mortality profile for a high mortality area are shown in blue, and the age and cause specific mortality generated by (3) and estimated by (2), including shape parameter k, in 1000 simulations shown in grey, for error in mortality by age comparable to that observed in China (a) and for approximately twice the error by age as observed in China (b)