Fig. 2

The importance of each factor affecting CFR and its effects in the original, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron periods. a ISs for each feature affecting CFR in each period model, obtained by taking the absolute mean of the SHAP values. The 35 features represent seven distinct dimensions: vaccination coverage, demographic factors, disease burden, behavioural risk factors, environmental risk factors, health services, and trust levels. b SHAP dependence plots for proportion of population aged over 65, booster vaccination rate, CVD, and GDP per capita in the XGBoost models. SHAP values above zero represent an increased risk of higher COVID-19 CFR. Abbreviations: IS, important score; LRI, lower respiratory infections; URI, upper respiratory infections; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CVD, cardiovascular diseases; CKD, chronic kidney disease; HTN, hypertension; MD, mental disorders; NCD, noncommunicable diseases; HIV, HIV infection; TB, tuberculosis