Table 1 Country-level effect sizes of pandemic preparedness capacities on SARS-CoV-2 infection completion rates stratified by time periods after the first reported case in each country
Pandemic preparedness capacity | SARS-CoV-2 infection completion rate ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Days ≤ 100 | Days 100–300 | Day 300–500 | Days 500–700 | Total observation period | Ratio | |
Global health security index score | 1.09 (1.04, 1.16) | 1.14 (1.07, 1.22) | 1.11 (1.04, 1.19) | 1.17 (1.10, 1.25) | 1.15 (1.08, 1.22) | 1.06 (1.00, 1.13) |
 Prevention score | 1.05 (1.03, 1.07) | 1.07 (1.05, 1.09) | 1.07 (1.04, 1.10) | 1.08 (1.06, 1.11) | 1.08 (1.05, 1.10) | 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) |
  Zoonotic disease | 1.02 (1.00, 1.03) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.04) | 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) | 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) | 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) |
 Detection score | 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) | 1.04 (1.01, 1.07) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.05) | 1.04 (1.02, 1.07) | 1.04 (1.01, 1.06) | 1.02 (0.99, 1.04) |
  Laboratory capacity | ||||||
   Low capacity | 1.30 (0.80, 2.12) | 1.22 (0.76, 1.96) | 1.08 (0.64, 1.82) | 1.11 (0.66, 1.85) | 1.11 (0.69, 1.79) | 0.83 (0.54, 1.28) |
   Moderate capacity | 1.18 (0.76, 1.81) | 1.66 (1.05, 2.62) | 1.38 (0.83, 2.28) | 1.21 (0.71, 2.09) | 1.32 (0.81, 2.15) | 1.05 (0.66, 1.67) |
   Moderate-high capacity | 1.81 (1.20, 2.74) | 2.01 (1.31, 3.08) | 1.79 (1.11, 2.89) | 2.26 (1.40, 3.63) | 2.11 (1.37, 3.25) | 1.23 (0.82, 1.85) |
  Laboratory quality systems | ||||||
   Moderate quality | 1.05 (0.66, 1.67) | 0.86 (0.53, 1.42) | 0.66 (0.39, 1.12) | 0.71 (0.41, 1.22) | 0.70 (0.42, 1.15) | 0.71 (0.45, 1.14) |
   High quality | 1.53 (1.07, 2.19) | 1.68 (1.12, 2.51) | 1.46 (0.96, 2.21) | 1.91 (1.23, 2.95) | 1.65 (1.11, 2.45) | 1.26 (0.84, 1.88) |
  Case-based investigation | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.01) |
  Laboratory supply chain | ||||||
   Moderate | 0.94 (0.68, 1.28) | 0.96 (0.70, 1.30) | 1.10 (0.74, 1.64) | 0.99 (0.66, 1.49) | 1.04 (0.74, 1.47) | 1.06 (0.70, 1.60) |
   High | 1.15 (0.61, 2.15) | 0.75 (0.31, 1.82) | 0.53 (0.09, 3.07) | 2.18 (0.95, 5.01) | 1.62 (0.72, 3.63) | 1.90 (1.22, 2.97) |
  Real-time surveillance/reporting | 1.00 (0.99, 1.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.01) | 0.99 (0.98, 1.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.01) |
 Response score | 1.02 (0.96, 1.08) | 1.04 (0.97, 1.11) | 1.04 (0.97, 1.11) | 1.08 (1.00, 1.16) | 1.06 (1.00, 1.13) | 1.06 (0.99, 1.13) |
  Emergency preparedness and response planning | 1.01 (0.99, 1.02) | 1.01 (0.99, 1.03) | 1.01 (0.99, 1.03) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) | 1.01 (0.99, 1.02) |
  Access to communications infrastructure | 1.14 (1.04, 1.24) | 1.20 (1.09, 1.32) | 1.22 (1.08, 1.37) | 1.19 (1.08, 1.32) | 1.20 (1.08, 1.33) | 1.05 (0.99, 1.12) |
 Health system score | 1.05 (1.03, 1.08) | 1.07 (1.04, 1.10) | 1.06 (1.03, 1.09) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.11) | 1.06 (1.03, 1.10) | 1.01 (0.98, 1.04) |
  Health capacity in healthcare settings | 1.02 (1.00, 1.03) | 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) | 1.03 (1.00, 1.05) | 1.04 (1.02, 1.06) | 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.03) |
  Healthcare access | 1.06 (1.00, 1.11) | 1.08 (1.00, 1.15) | 1.10 (1.02, 1.18) | 1.06 (1.00, 1.13) | 1.07 (1.01, 1.14) | 1.01 (0.97, 1.05) |
 International norms score | 0.99 (0.94, 1.05) | 1.03 (0.97, 1.09) | 0.98 (0.92, 1.04) | 1.03 (0.97, 1.09) | 1.01 (0.96, 1.07) | 1.04 (0.98, 1.09) |
  Cross-border agreements on health responses | ||||||
   Moderate | 0.72 (0.49, 1.04) | 0.86 (0.57, 1.31) | 0.56 (0.36, 0.87) | 0.65 (0.41, 1.05) | 0.64 (0.42, 0.97) | 0.88 (0.58, 1.33) |
   High | 0.80 (0.54, 1.16) | 1.15 (0.75, 1.76) | 0.80 (0.50, 1.29) | 1.15 (0.71, 1.84) | 0.98 (0.65, 1.48) | 1.41 (0.88, 2.25) |
  International commitments | 1.03 (1.00, 1.05) | 1.04 (1.01, 1.07) | 1.04 (1.01, 1.07) | 1.05 (1.02, 1.08) | 1.05 (1.02, 1.08) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.05) |
 Risk environment score | 1.21 (1.11, 1.31) | 1.24 (1.12, 1.37) | 1.24 (1.11, 1.39) | 1.27 (1.14, 1.41) | 1.27 (1.15, 1.41) | 1.04 (0.95, 1.14) |
  Government effectiveness | 1.05 (1.02, 1.08) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.11) | 1.05 (1.01, 1.09) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.12) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.11) | 1.02 (0.99, 1.05) |
  Socioeconomic resilience | 1.16 (1.09, 1.23) | 1.25 (1.18, 1.33) | 1.24 (1.15, 1.33) | 1.30 (1.21, 1.39) | 1.28 (1.20, 1.36) | 1.11 (1.04, 1.19) |
  Social inclusion | 1.05 (1.02, 1.09) | 1.08 (1.04, 1.11) | 1.08 (1.03, 1.12) | 1.07 (1.02, 1.13) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.12) | 1.02 (0.99, 1.05) |
  Inequality | 1.00 (0.99, 1.02) | 1.01 (0.99, 1.03) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.02) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.03) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.03) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.03) |
  Trust in health advice from government | ||||||
   Moderate trust | 0.99 (0.66, 1.47) | 1.02 (0.68, 1.54) | 0.94 (0.57, 1.54) | 0.76 (0.46, 1.26) | 0.91 (0.57, 1.46) | 0.79 (0.58, 1.07) |
   High trust | 1.13 (0.73, 1.75) | 0.86 (0.54, 1.37) | 0.64 (0.36, 1.12) | 0.79 (0.46, 1.34) | 0.89 (0.55, 1.45) | 0.70 (0.48, 1.04) |
  Trust in health advice from health care worker | ||||||
   Moderate trust | 3.60 (1.94, 6.67) | 3.37 (2.01, 5.65) | 4.10 (2.32, 7.25) | 3.20 (1.51, 6.81) | 3.98 (2.16, 7.34) | 0.92 (0.61, 1.38) |
   High trust | 3.87 (2.04, 7.33) | 4.01 (2.32, 6.92) | 4.01 (2.24, 7.18) | 3.82 (1.76, 8.26) | 4.48 (2.38, 8.42) | 1.00 (0.63, 1.59) |
Joint external evaluation (JEE) ready score | 1.17 (1.07, 1.27) | 1.15 (1.07, 1.25) | 1.13 (1.03, 1.24) | 1.19 (1.09, 1.30) | 1.19 (1.10, 1.30) | 1.01 (0.93, 1.10) |
 Prevention score | 1.17 (1.08, 1.26) | 1.17 (1.08, 1.28) | 1.16 (1.06, 1.26) | 1.22 (1.11, 1.33) | 1.21 (1.12, 1.32) | 1.03 (0.95, 1.12) |
 Detection score | 1.14 (1.00, 1.29) | 1.15 (1.03, 1.29) | 1.12 (0.98, 1.28) | 1.25 (1.11, 1.42) | 1.23 (1.09, 1.39) | 1.06 (0.94, 1.21) |
 Response score | 1.10 (1.02, 1.18) | 1.07 (1.00, 1.14) | 1.05 (0.97, 1.13) | 1.08 (1.00, 1.16) | 1.08 (1.01, 1.16) | 0.97 (0.91, 1.03) |