Table 2 Country-level effect sizes of pandemic preparedness capacities on cumulative COVID-19 death completion rates and ratios of COVID-19 excess mortality to reported COVID-19 mortality
Pandemic preparedness capacity | COVID-19 death completion rate ratio | Ratio of excess mortality to reported COVID-19 mortality | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
The Economist | IHME | WHO | ||
Global health security index score | 1.11 (1.06, 1.15) | − 0.02 (− 0.09, 0.04) | − 0.06 (− 0.10, − 0.02) | − 0.02 (− 0.08, 0.05) |
 Prevention score | 1.05 (1.04, 1.07) | − 0.01 (− 0.03, 0.02) | − 0.03 (− 0.04, − 0.01) | − 0.00 (− 0.03, 0.02) |
  Zoonotic disease | 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) | − 0.00 (− 0.02, 0.02) | − 0.01 (− 0.02, − 0.00) | 0.00 (− 0.02, 0.02) |
 Detection score | 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) | 0.01 (− 0.02, 0.04) | − 0.02 (− 0.04, − 0.00) | − 0.01 (− 0.04, 0.03) |
  Laboratory capacity | ||||
   Low capacity | 0.88 (0.62, 1.25) | − 0.36 (− 0.93, 0.22) | − 0.08 (− 0.41, 0.25) | − 0.39 (− 0.99, 0.21) |
   Moderate capacity | 1.28 (0.92, 1.77) | − 0.04 (− 0.37, 0.30) | − 0.07 (− 0.37, 0.24) | − 0.04 (− 0.42, 0.33) |
   Moderate− high capacity | 1.78 (1.29, 2.45) | − 0.47 (− 0.95, 0.01) | − 0.48 (− 0.79, − 0.16) | − 0.57 (− 1.07, − 0.07) |
  Laboratory quality systems | ||||
   Moderate quality | 1.02 (0.71, 1.47) | 0.40 (− 0.17, 0.97) | 0.14 (− 0.17, 0.44) | 0.42 (− 0.12, 0.96) |
   High quality | 1.56 (1.15, 2.12) | 0.15 (− 0.27, 0.58) | − 0.30 (− 0.57, − 0.02) | − 0.07 (− 0.52, 0.38) |
  Case-based investigation | 1.01 (1.00, 1.01) | − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.01) | − 0.01 (− 0.02, − 0.00) | − 0.01 (− 0.02, 0.00) |
  Laboratory supply chain | ||||
   Moderate | 0.80 (0.61, 1.06) | 0.21 (− 0.09, 0.52) | 0.19 (− 0.06, 0.45) | 0.31 (− 0.01, 0.64) |
   High | 1.04 (0.45, 2.40) | − 0.95 (− 2.42, 0.51) | − 0.59 (− 1.96, 0.77) | − 1.17 (− 2.49, 0.14) |
  Real-time surveillance/reporting | 1.00 (0.99, 1.01) | 0.01 (− 0.00, 0.02) | 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.01) | 0.01 (− 0.01, 0.02) |
 Response score | 1.05 (1.00, 1.10) | − 0.03 (− 0.10, 0.03) | − 0.03 (− 0.07, 0.01) | − 0.01 (− 0.07, 0.05) |
  Emergency preparedness and response planning | 1.01 (1.00, 1.03) | 0.00 (− 0.02, 0.03) | − 0.01 (− 0.02, 0.00) | 0.01 (− 0.02, 0.03) |
  Access to communications infrastructure | 1.16 (1.07, 1.25) | − 0.14 (− 0.22, − 0.05) | − 0.09 (− 0.15, − 0.03) | − 0.09 (− 0.18, − 0.01) |
 Health system score | 1.05 (1.03, 1.07) | − 0.01 (− 0.04, 0.02) | − 0.03 (− 0.05, − 0.00) | 0.01 (− 0.03, 0.04) |
  Health capacity in healthcare settings | 1.02 (1.00, 1.03) | − 0.02 (− 0.04, 0.00) | − 0.01 (− 0.03, 0.00) | − 0.02 (− 0.04, 0.00) |
  Healthcare access | 1.04 (0.98, 1.09) | − 0.02 (− 0.06, 0.02) | − 0.01 (− 0.06, 0.03) | − 0.01 (− 0.06, 0.05) |
 International norms score | 1.01 (0.97, 1.05) | 0.01 (− 0.06, 0.07) | − 0.01 (− 0.06, 0.03) | 0.02 (− 0.04, 0.08) |
  Cross-border agreements on health responses | ||||
   Moderate | 0.99 (0.72, 1.37) | 0.25 (− 0.23, 0.74) | 0.06 (− 0.23, 0.36) | 0.25 (− 0.26, 0.76) |
   High | 1.01 (0.72, 1.43) | 0.17 (− 0.30, 0.63) | − 0.01 (− 0.34, 0.33) | 0.21 (− 0.26, 0.68) |
  International commitments | 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) | 0.00 (− 0.03, 0.03) | − 0.02 (− 0.03, 0.00) | 0.00 (− 0.03, 0.03) |
 Risk Environment score | 1.15 (1.08, 1.23) | − 0.17 (− 0.28, − 0.06) | − 0.10 (− 0.17, − 0.03) | − 0.17 (− 0.28, − 0.06) |
  Government effectiveness | 1.05 (1.02, 1.07) | − 0.05 (− 0.09, − 0.00) | − 0.03 (− 0.05, − 0.00) | − 0.05 (− 0.09, − 0.00) |
  Socioeconomic resilience | 1.18 (1.13, 1.23) | − 0.16 (− 0.24, − 0.08) | − 0.12 (− 0.18, − 0.07) | − 0.13 (− 0.21, − 0.05) |
  Social inclusion | 1.06 (1.03, 1.09) | − 0.04 (− 0.07, − 0.02) | − 0.04 (− 0.07, − 0.02) | − 0.02 (− 0.05, 0.01) |
  Inequality | 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) | − 0.01 (− 0.02, 0.01) | − 0.01 (− 0.02, 0.00) | − 0.01 (− 0.02, 0.01) |
  Trust in health advice from government | ||||
   Moderate trust | 1.01 (0.70, 1.47) | − 0.36 (− 0.75, 0.04) | − 0.04 (− 0.34, 0.25) | − 0.28 (− 0.82, 0.27) |
   High trust | 1.05 (0.70, 1.57) | − 0.07 (− 0.52, 0.38) | − 0.12 (− 0.54, 0.30) | − 0.13 (− 0.75, 0.48) |
  Trust in health advice from health care worker | ||||
   Moderate trust | 3.12 (2.29, 4.26) | − 1.28 (− 2.00, − 0.55) | − 0.74 (− 1.18, − 0.29) | − 0.30 (− 2.21, 1.61) |
   High trust | 2.96 (2.12, 4.13) | − 0.93 (− 1.65, − 0.21) | − 0.68 (− 1.16, − 0.20) | − 0.09 (− 1.98, 1.81) |
Joint external evaluation (JEE) ready score | 1.16 (1.10, 1.22) | − 0.02 (− 0.11, 0.06) | − 0.08 (− 0.15, − 0.01) | − 0.07 (− 0.15, 0.01) |
 Prevention score | 1.16 (1.10, 1.22) | − 0.06 (− 0.13, 0.01) | − 0.09 (− 0.15, − 0.03) | − 0.12 (− 0.19, − 0.04) |
 Detection score | 1.18 (1.10, 1.28) | 0.01 (− 0.11, 0.12) | − 0.11 (− 0.20, − 0.03) | − 0.08 (− 0.18, 0.01) |
 Response score | 1.08 (1.03, 1.13) | − 0.00 (− 0.09, 0.09) | − 0.04 (− 0.09, 0.01) | − 0.01 (− 0.09, 0.07) |