Pandemic preparedness improves national-level SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality data completeness: a cross-country ecologic analysis

Ledesma, Jorge R.; Papanicolas, Irene; Stoto, Michael A.; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A.; Isaac, Christopher R.; Lurie, Mark N.; Nuzzo, Jennifer B.

doi:10.1186/s12963-024-00333-1

Population Health Metrics

Table 4 Country-level effect sizes of pandemic preparedness capacities on cumulative reported COVID-19 death rates, total COVID-19 death rates, and age-standardized total COVID-19 death rates at 100 and 300 days after first reported case for each country

From: Pandemic preparedness improves national-level SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality data completeness: a cross-country ecologic analysis

Pandemic preparedness capacity	Reported COVID-19 death rate ratios		Total COVID-19 death rate ratios		Age-standardized COVID-19 death rate ratios
Pandemic preparedness capacity	Day 100	Day 300	Day 100	Day 300	Day 100	Day 300
Global health security index score	1.03 (0.93, 1.14)	1.09 (0.98, 1.22)	0.93 (0.83, 1.04)	0.99 (0.89, 1.10)	0.84 (0.75, 0.95)	0.90 (0.81, 1.00)
Prevention score	1.02 (0.98, 1.06)	1.06 (1.02, 1.11)	0.97 (0.93, 1.01)	1.01 (0.98, 1.05)	0.93 (0.90, 0.97)	0.97 (0.94, 1.00)
Detection score	0.99 (0.95, 1.03)	1.01 (0.97, 1.05)	0.96 (0.92, 1.00)	0.98 (0.94, 1.02)	0.94 (0.90, 0.98)	0.96 (0.92, 1.00)
Response score	1.00 (0.91, 1.11)	1.00 (0.89, 1.11)	0.96 (0.86, 1.08)	0.95 (0.86, 1.06)	0.92 (0.81, 1.04)	0.91 (0.81, 1.01)
Health system score	1.04 (0.99, 1.09)	1.08 (1.04, 1.13)	0.99 (0.94, 1.04)	1.03 (0.99, 1.08)	0.95 (0.90, 1.00)	0.99 (0.95, 1.04)
International norms score	0.99 (0.91, 1.09)	1.00 (0.92, 1.09)	0.99 (0.89, 1.09)	0.99 (0.91, 1.08)	0.93 (0.84, 1.03)	0.94 (0.86, 1.02)
Risk environment score	0.90 (0.79, 1.03)	1.06 (0.94, 1.19)	0.78 (0.67, 0.91)	0.92 (0.83, 1.01)	0.72 (0.61, 0.84)	0.84 (0.76, 0.93)
Joint external evaluation (JEE) ready score	1.01 (0.87, 1.17)	1.06 (0.93, 1.21)	0.87 (0.75, 1.02)	0.92 (0.81, 1.05)	0.81 (0.69, 0.95)	0.85 (0.75, 0.97)
Prevention score	0.98 (0.85, 1.12)	1.05 (0.91, 1.20)	0.84 (0.73, 0.97)	0.91 (0.79, 1.04)	0.78 (0.67, 0.90)	0.84 (0.72, 0.97)
Detection score	0.93 (0.77, 1.12)	0.96 (0.80, 1.15)	0.78 (0.64, 0.95)	0.81 (0.69, 0.95)	0.71 (0.58, 0.86)	0.73 (0.63, 0.86)
Response score	1.05 (0.95, 1.16)	1.07 (0.98, 1.15)	0.97 (0.87, 1.08)	0.99 (0.92, 1.06)	0.95 (0.85, 1.06)	0.96 (0.89, 1.03)

Effect sizes are rate ratios comparing 10% differences in each index. Individual regressions were implemented for each GHS Index measure to assess the effect of the measure independent of other indicators. Covariates included in each regression was log transformed pre-pandemic gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. One was added to continuous preparedness indicators prior to log transformation

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